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金鹰基金:冲突扰动影响有望减弱 超跌反弹后仍需聚焦景气_蜘蛛资讯网

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显现表明美国总需求依然偏弱,且目前高油价的冲击尚未扩散,那么未来美国CPI环比可能延续0.3%的增速水平,这对应美国CPI同比将在3.5%附近震荡,由此带来美联储进一步加息的概率或偏低。国内3月PPI亦在油价带动下明显转正,但CPI修复弱于预期,总体维持1%水平,油价推动企业成本上行或将引发A股盈利结构变化。中期来看,市场仍面临油价中枢抬升带来的滞胀挑战,预计市场在经历过超跌反弹后或将回到区间震荡

滞胀挑战,预计市场在经历过超跌反弹后或将回到区间震荡中,期间或将出现由“估值”修复向“盈利”主导的切换,从企业毛利率相对冲突前的变化过程中,或有望筛选出新的结构性机会。  关注行业方面,金鹰基金建议,普涨过程中优化配置结构,中期保持上游能源/中游龙头+科技聚焦的均衡配置。价值方向,油价中枢抬升背景下,煤炭、油气开采、养殖等受益滞胀的涨价链条仍具备阶段性配置价值,若因交易冲突缓和而下跌,反而是其配置

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